Complexity Modeling , Oil & Gas
Rare Event Probability Calculation
The most significant threat to a petroleum development is an uncontrolled release of reservoir fluids into the well-bore, commonly called a blowout. The consequences of such an event can be significant in terms of injury to personnel, damage to the environment, economic damage and legal action.
kwantis together with eni developed a tool to calculate blowout probability for operated and non-operated wells as a function of actual well design.
The system, completely different from worldwide existing and recognized system centered on pure statistics, bases its calculation on the interaction among three main elements combined as a function of exposure time: safety equipment failure, human error and environmental conditions. These elements are combined through hundreds of fault trees that are automatically combined by the system considering the specific operation.
"The system is unique and has been formally certified by the most acknowledge expert in the matter"
Such approach grants a better description of blowout event probability providing a more robust and exhaustive description of the phenomena. Currently these calculations are eni answer towards governmental bodies, agencies or board when asking about well blowout risk exposure.
The system has been validated by DNV GL, a recognize international company with a broad experience in oil & gas business, in 2015.