Our team at Kwantis is proud to share our latest advancements in managing the environmental impacts of well operations. At this year’s AIMCS conference in Abu Dhabi, Tomas Morcella presented a pioneering blowout risk assessment workflow . This innovative approach aims to accurately estimate the duration and spill volume of well blowouts, a critical aspect of well integrity management in the oil and gas industry.
Methodology Highlights
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a methodology used to evaluate the likelihood of a system reaching an undesirable state by identifying all potential pathways leading to that event. FTA helps visualize these fault pathways using logic symbols like AND gates, OR gates, and Basic Events.
Under this optic, the focus of FTA is to identify Well integrity loss as the undesired event. This involves defining the pathways through which such loss could occur, considering factors like well configuration in terms of barriers, location, and material selection. The Fault tree Tree is then constructed, representing different flow paths.
Event Modeling: Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a forward, top-down, logical modeling technique used to analyze the consequences of an initiating event and evaluate potential outcomes.
This methodology helps in understanding the possible sequences of events that can follow an initiating event, including both failures and successes of subsequent safety functions or mitigation measures. In the optic of the analysis, the event tree is characterized by the blowout event, and the branches are depicted as the phases that are in contact with the target lithology, the activities during that phase, the flowpaths that could lead to the B.O. and the status of the BOP. Finally each event is given an occurring probability which is fed to the Monte Carlo Engine in the last step.
Monte Carlo Simulation: is a statistical technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and modeling problems. It relies on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results, simulating the behavior of complex systems or processes.
For this reason, the methodology picks an event from the event tree randomly and verifies the B.O. stopping events availability, probability of success and duration based on three types of events, well bridging, capping activities and relief well. Finally, combined with the flow rate information, the model provides quick, well-specific estimates of release duration and spill volume. These insights are vital for evaluating environmental impact and planning effective mitigation actions.
By incorporating uncertainties, we offer a comprehensive view of potential risks, helping operators make informed decisions that balance environmental, social, reputational, and economic considerations. We’re committed to advancing safety and sustainability in our industry. Stay updated with the latest innovations and news from Kwantis!