The increasing consideration for the environmental impact of well operations requires the main Operators to have an accurate knowledge and management of their associated risks. Most of the effort is concentrated on the avoidance of well incidents. Then, the management and efforts to reduce the duration and spilled volume of a blowout are other critical aspects of the oil and gas industry.

Kwantis developed a specialized model to assess the probability and consequences of a blowout event in terms of spilled volume and duration. The model is based on three pillars:

Event Tree Analysis: The probable blowout scenarios, their likelihood, and the flow path of hydrocarbons within the well are identified and an Event Tree is generated with a specific assigned probability to each of the possible flowpaths.

Assigning Flow Rates: In order to estimate the spill volume and assess the wellbore stability, to each scenario a distribution of flow rates are assigned which allows a probabilistic approach when evaluating the consequences. 

Evaluation of Interventions: The model considers various interventions, such as well bridging or human interventions like deploying capping stacks or relief wells. These interventions are assessed for applicability, probability of success, and time to occur, incorporating industry data and statistical functions.

“Unlocking the potential well data”

By harnessing the power of Monte Carlo simulations, the methodology provides well-specific estimates of release duration and spill volume, facilitating environmental impact evaluation and the sizing of mitigation actions. This comprehensive approach considers uncertainties, offering a nuanced understanding of blowout risk and enabling better-informed decision-making for operators.